US stimulus package is biggest ever, but may not be big enough

first_imgBut investors and economists said even this additional money may be insufficient, and Congress will likely need to pony up trillions of dollars more before the Fed and Treasury can make a significant dent in the real economy. If it does not, many US companies and local governments are at risk of defaulting on debt or even going under.That is because of the sheer size of the world’s largest economy, the unprecedented scale of economic disruption caused by attempts to contain the virus and higher credit losses if the government has to step in to support weaker borrowers, according to these experts.Scott Minerd, chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners and member of an investor committee that advises the New York Federal Reserve on financial markets, told Reuters he believes the government needs to give the Treasury about $2 trillion to help prop up the economy.Using expected losses from companies in the lowest tier of investment grade, Minerd estimates that the money approved last week might be only enough to absorb losses on loans of about $900 billion.Bare minimumThat is just a fraction of the roughly $9.5 trillion in outstanding US corporate debt, much of which is either in the lowest-tier investment grade rating or already rated as junk, with a higher risk of default. Other areas that need support – such as the commercial paper market where borrowers go for short-term funding or the municipal market that local governments use to raise money for roads and schools – total trillions of dollars more.“I think we’ll be back at the table with another program before this is over,” Minerd said in an interview.With the $2 trillion that he recommends, he said, “you’re on your way to have something of a big enough scale to get things propped up.”In a research note last week, Bank of America analysts said the aid package passed last week was the “bare minimum.” They estimated the government will need a total of $3 trillion in fiscal stimulus and more if the recession deepens.Read also: Reopening economy too early could backfire for humans and markets, investors sayThe Fed declined to comment. The Treasury did not respond to a request for comment on Sunday.The Fed has so far kept its pledge to lend to companies with investment-grade ratings, and to buy other high-quality assets such as Treasury securities.The aim of the Fed’s support is to encourage banks and investors to lend to weaker, and therefore more risky, companies and local governments, where they can earn higher returns, giving them access to the funding they need to continue operating and paying staff.In some of the Fed’s funding facilities, the Treasury put up $10 billion as loss-absorbing capital for every $100 billion of loans. Mnuchin’s comment that the Fed and Treasury can now lend $4 trillion suggests he expects the rate of losses on the new loans to be similar, less than 10 percent.Weaker creditsInvestors said losses would likely increase, however, if the government has to reach deeper into the economy. And they are betting the Fed will have to do so – junk bonds rallied last week, for example.“‘We’re only going to lend money to really good credits’ is a good model if you’re a bank,” said Charles Lemonides, founder of New York-based investment firm ValueWorks LLC. “But if you’re trying to rescue businesses that are otherwise failing, it’s not a very good strategy.”Fed officials have signaled they are not ruling anything out in their efforts.In its support for the commercial paper market, for example, the Fed allows for companies that are downgraded after March 17 to return at least once more to the trough for funding.In its facility to make loans to investment-grade companies through a special purpose vehicle, the Fed said, “The scope of eligible issuers may be expanded in the future.”Read also: Jokowi relaxes loan settlements to help small businesses cope with COVID-19 effectsBut officials know that reaching lower down the credit-quality spectrum entails greater risk and might require a larger contribution from Treasury to account for it.In time, as they see how the programs for higher-quality borrowers play out, they may grow more comfortable with casting a wider net and explore ways to get cash to shakier corporate borrowers while limiting their risk.Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser to the German insurer Allianz SE, said backstopping non-investment grade credit would be a much harder decision for the Fed, given the degree of corporate credit and default risks involved.“I suspect that any move in that direction would need to come with a massive fiscal backstop to protect the integrity of the Fed’s balance sheets,” El-Erian said.Limiting lossesThe Fed’s initial steps into the corporate bond market, limiting its scope to investment grade issuers, essentially avoids rewarding or bailing out badly run companies.The Fed is justifying its move as help to companies that are caught in a situation not of their making, said Nellie Liang, former head of the Fed’s financial stability office and now at the Brookings Institution think-tank.“It is a question of limiting losses,” Liang said in a webinar last week organized by Princeton University.But the pressure on the Fed and Treasury to lend to riskier borrowers is only likely to increase if quarantines, stay-at-home orders and other economy-killing restrictions persist.A nearly empty 7th Avenue in Times Square is seen at rush hour after it was announced that Broadway shows will cancel performances due to the coronavirus outbreak in New York, United States, on March 12, 2020. (REUTERS/Mike Segar)In the weeks ahead, the pool of high-grade borrowers currently allowed in the program will likely shrink.The three major credit ratings agencies – Moody’s, S&P and Fitch – are certain to cut a number of companies now at the lowest tiers of investment grade into junk territory, as happened last week to Ford Motor Co.That could become an issue, said Kathy Bostjancic, chief US economist at forecasting and analysis firm Oxford Economics.“You can argue there is a need and the Fed has a lot more insurance backing from the US Treasury” to delve into the riskier part of the bond market, Bostjancic said.“However, it could entail significant losses and so risky for the Fed and they might stay away from it,” she said.Topics : The Federal Reserve has offered more than US$3 trillion in loans and asset purchases in recent weeks to stop the US financial system from seizing up, but it has not yet directly helped large swaths of the real economy: companies, municipalities and other borrowers with less than perfect credit.That is partly because America’s central bank is not allowed to take much credit risk itself, and loans to lower-rated borrowers have a higher chance of losses. The risk is exacerbated by efforts to stop the spread of coronavirus which have brought economic activity to a screeching halt.To alleviate that constraint, the US Treasury – whose job it is to manage the government’s finances and help the Fed keep the economy steady – has taken on some of the risk that Fed loans will not be paid back. It has contributed about US$50 billion from a pool of money called the Exchange Stabilization Fund. That money will be used to absorb losses from Fed loans that go bad. Assuming only a fraction of loans will default, the Treasury contribution has allowed the Fed to lend much more without taking on additional risk.On Friday, the Treasury got about $450 billion more from Congress as part of a $2.2 trillion US stimulus package, greatly increasing its ability to support the economy. Before the bill passed, the stabilization fund had about $93 billion in assets as of the end of February.Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox News on Sunday he believed the additional funds could help the Fed and Treasury provide about $4 trillion in loans.Read also: More cash aid, stimuli needed to soften economic shocks of COVID-19: Economistslast_img read more

Mikel Arteta reveals details of the call with Edu that convinced him to take Arsenal job

first_img Arsenal v Leeds: Mikel Arteta press conferenceTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Play VideoLoaded: 0%0:00Progress: 0%PlayMuteCurrent Time 0:00/Duration Time 10:39FullscreenArsenal v Leeds: Mikel Arteta press conference is a modal window.Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window.TextColorWhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanTransparencyOpaqueSemi-TransparentBackgroundColorBlackWhiteRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanTransparencyOpaqueSemi-TransparentTransparentWindowColorBlackWhiteRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyanTransparencyTransparentSemi-TransparentOpaqueFont Size50%75%100%125%150%175%200%300%400%Text Edge StyleNoneRaisedDepressedUniformDropshadowFont FamilyProportional Sans-SerifMonospace Sans-SerifProportional SerifMonospace SerifCasualScriptSmall CapsReset restore all settings to the default valuesDoneClose Modal DialogEnd of dialog window.He said: ‘I don’t know, sometimes it happens with people, but he (Edu) called me and we started to have a conversation which should have lasted just a few minutes and we went long.‘We shared a lot of things in our career and we have a lot of similarities. Then the way we were thinking about the situation and became very close and with the ideas, I agree with that. ‘I will do this,’ ‘me too’. It started to build that relationship like this.‘The chemistry was there to be fair from day one.‘He was part of the most exciting and successful times of this football club so he knows exactly what needs to be done.’Arteta has made an encouraging start to his managerial career and earlier this week celebrated his first victory after masterminding a convincing 2-0 win over Manchester United.More: Arsenal FCArsenal flop Denis Suarez delivers verdict on Thomas Partey and Lucas Torreira movesThomas Partey debut? Ian Wright picks his Arsenal starting XI vs Manchester CityArsene Wenger explains why Mikel Arteta is ‘lucky’ to be managing ArsenalThe Spaniard has a lengthening injury list to contend with but insists he will be treating Monday’s FA Cup third round tie against Leeds with the upmost respect.Asked whether or not he would take the FA Cup seriously, he said: ‘Absolutely. I would like to have more fit players so I can rotate more, but we will see what we have after tomorrow.‘But obviously it is a competition that is very attached to this football club in recent years and we have to take to very seriously and we have to try to go to the next round.’MORE: Arsenal unlikely to make signings in January transfer window after significant summer spendingMORE: Ole Gunnar Solskjaer hits back at Robin van Persie over criticism after Manchester United’s defeat to Arsenal Advertisement Comment Edu played a key role in convincing Mikel Arteta to replace Unai Emery as Arsenal’s head coach (Picture: Getty)Mikel Arteta has revealed his first phone call with Arsenal’s technical director Edu helped convince him the time was right to return to the north London club.The 37-year-old was close to succeeding Arsene Wenger in the summer of 2018 before a late change of heart saw the Arsenal board employ a more experienced candidate in the shape of Unai Emery.Defeat against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League at the end of November proved to be the final straw for Emery, however, and after launching an extensive search for his replacement, Arsenal’s new-look executive committee settled on Arteta as their No.1 choice.AdvertisementAdvertisementPep Guardiola’s former No.2 at Manchester City deliberated over whether or not to leave the Premier League champions mid-season and held several rounds of talks with Arsenal before making the move back to the Emirates.ADVERTISEMENTAnd the former Arsenal captain revealed his initial conversations with Edu, who was working with the Brazil national team when the choice to overlook Arteta for Emery was made, played a key role in helping him to make a decision on his future. Metro Sport ReporterSaturday 4 Jan 2020 1:19 pmShare this article via facebookShare this article via twitterShare this article via messengerShare this with Share this article via emailShare this article via flipboardCopy link2.3kShares Advertisement Mikel Arteta reveals details of the call with Edu that convinced him to take Arsenal joblast_img read more

VER lowers fixed income exposure after second quarterly loss

first_imgFinland’s State Pension Fund (VER) has continued to increase its equity exposure at the expense of fixed income holdings, after the latter portfolio suffered its second quarterly loss.Releasing its financial results for the three months to September, VER said assets under management had risen by €600m to €16bn as investments returned 4.1%.However, it continued to lower its fixed income holdings – down by 4.3 percentage points since the end of December – after suffering losses of 1.7%.While the result is an improvement on the 2% loss suffered during the second quarter, it is a marked decline on the nearly 9% return offered by the fixed income portfolio over the course of 2012. VER has been slowly decreasing its fixed income exposure since the beginning of the current year after the portfolio returned just 0.2% in the three months to March.As a result, equity holdings have risen from 38% to 41% over the course of the last nine months, and its ‘other’ portfolio – comprising hedge funds and commodities – has increased by one-third to €431m over the same period.The fund’s equities returned 12.8% over the course of the third quarter, by far outperforming the 2.6% gain seen by the other investment portfolio.last_img read more

Irish SWF welcomes ‘prototype’ joint venture to develop brewery site

first_imgIreland’s sovereign wealth fund has finalised details of a joint venture that will re-develop a former brewery site in Kilkenny, and announced a €750m investment pipeline for 2016.Kilkenny County Council (KCC), in the south-east of Ireland, signed off on the proposal to work with the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund (ISIF) earlier this week.The brewery development has been championed by KCC, which owns the plots of land surrounding the historic St Francis Abbey. The council has been weighing up the site’s future since 2012, when it agreed to buy the 10.6-acre site housing a former brewery from multinational drinks company Diageo.The National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), which houses the €7.9bn ISIF, first approached the council in February last year to discuss the joint venture. Eugene O’Callaghan, director at the ISIF, told IPE the joint venture was a “very interesting concept”.“We have the capacity to take risk that councils cannot,” he said.“The proposed development would be consistent with our mandate to invest for a commercial return and to achieve a significant economic impact with our investment.“The Kilkenny project could be a prototype for what we hope will be further investments in this space.”The venture will see the ISIF and council each provide €1.6m in equity funding towards the Kilkenny Abbey Quarter Development Partnership (AQDP), a limited liability partnership.AQDP will hire a third-party manager to oversee the business, with a board comprising two representatives from each stakeholder, as well as an independent chairman, in charge of its supervision.The partnership will take ownership of at least six plots accounting for 27% of the land, with the option of a further 13% of land being transferred if “substantial” development were to take place, a presentation prepared by the council said.Separately, KCC plans to construct at least 60 residential units on a plot near the ones transferred to AQDP.It emphasised that any development by the partnership would be entirely contingent on demand, and that it would not engage in speculative building.“Loan finance for the development of individual proposals will be sourced by the partnership, most likely from the NTMA on commercial terms,” the presentation added.The council is hoping the redevelopment will see the creation of a new quarter but has not yet settled on a final design, with a dozen options included in the master plan approved this week.If, at the end of the second year of the partnership, construction has not got underway on at least 50,000 sqft of property, KCC would be allowed to take back the plots turned over to the partnership, as well as to terminate the partnership after three years, even if the minimum target is not met.The sign-off on the joint venture came as the ISIF confirmed its investment pipeline for 2016, and estimated it would commit €750m to projects over the course of the year, bringing commited capital close to €3bn.The fund also said it was considering a further 54 projects, worth a combined €2.4bn.O’Callaghan said the fund had made “substantial progress” since its formal launch in December 2014.“Investing in projects that deliver a commercial return means the fund’s resources are not depleted and the economic impact obtained can be renewed over time as investments are recycled.“Between now and 2020, we will continue to identify suitable commercial investment opportunities that will deliver incremental economic impact.”In real estate, the ISIF last year launched a residential property joint venture with KKR, providing debt to residential property developments.last_img read more

Gay Advocates Want to Shutter Christian Bakery

first_imgCP Business 3 June 2013Months after facing a media storm for their refusal to bake a cake for a lesbian wedding due to their Christian faith, husband and wife owners of the Sweet Cakes by Melissa bakery in Gresham, Ore., are now facing new attacks from gay advocates whom they say are determined to run them out of business.When Melissa and Aaron Klein’s stance on homosexuality was made public in February , the couple received a mixed bag of positive support and outrage.Since then however, the positive support has dwindled, according to a recent report in TheBlaze triggering fears among the couple that they could be forced to close the bakery if the attacks continue.“I feel like all these media people — they have not gotten our story — our actual story. And what we’re really about and why we said no,” said Melissa Klein in TheBlaze report. “Everyone is looking at us like we’re these hateful monsters that don’t want to serve gay people.”According to Aaron and Melissa, the aggressive advocates have also “badgered  and harassed” some of their clients until they no longer desire to do business  with the bakery.Wedding cake orders have dipped significantly over last summer due to the  situation while some customers have canceled previous orders.“My attorney likens this — he calls it economic terrorism,” said Aaron Klein.  “These people, they have literally tried to cut any business ties off through  harassment.”Even the customers who still support the Sweet Cakes by Melissa couple have  been forced to hide the fact that they were getting their treats from the  bakery. read more

Taycher teaches Northern SportMod lesson at Seymour

first_imgBy Dave Panske SEYMOUR, Wis. (June 8) – Joey Taycher assumed the lead in the Karl Chevrolet Northern Sport Mod main at the start and after a lone caution on lap three, took control and ran away from the field the rest of the distance Sunday at Seymour Speedway.Dennis Meisler, Lucas Lamberies, Jordan Barkholtz and Jordan Tuyls bunched behind running two- and three-wide chasing the leader.Tycher picked up his first feature win of the season with Lamberies taking the runner-up fin­ish. Jordan Barkholtz, Meisler and Jessi Ness rounded out the top five. The Budweiser IMCA Modifieds put 23 cars on the feature grid with T.J. Smith grabbing the lead at the start and Tyler Wilson, Tony Wedelstadt, Travis Spaulding and Brad Lautenbach behind. Smith hooked up on the outer groove and maintain a couple length lead as the battle was tight right behind for position. Lautenbach moved into the runner-up spot on lap 10 and set out to close in on the leader. A lone caution on lap 13 bunched the field on Smith, with Lautenbach, Jason Czarapata, Wilson, Jay Matthias and Spaulding right behind.Smith again took to the high side on the restart with Lautenbach also up a groove. Czarapata, took up the lower groove and in two laps took the lead from Smith and drove to his first feature win of the season.Lautenbach worked by Smith on the white flag lap to take the second place finish. Chad Bartel made a late race move that netted him fourth with Matthias taking fifth.The Coors Light IMCA Stock Cars ran a fast-paced, flag-to-flag event with Josh Mroczkowski tak­ing the initial lead.Right from the start the pack ran three- and four-wide from front to back. Bill Kelsey moved up to take over the lead on lap five with Rod Snellenberger following into the runner-up spot. Both Kel­sey and Snellenberger were working in the low groove while Mroczkowski was committed to stay­ing high. The frontrunners pulled away by a couple car lengths but Mroczkowski suddenly came back to life and charged alongside, making it a three-wide battle for the lead for two laps before Snellen­berger took charge on lap 10.For the rest of the race, Mroczkowski stayed with Snellenberger almost side-by-side but Snellen­berger held on to win his first loca feature of the season which was also his 195th career. Van Ooyen was third with Travis Van Straten taking fourth and Jeremy Wiitala fifth.last_img read more

Napoli needs Osimhen — Mertens

first_imgRelatedPosts Napoli Coach: Osimhen young lad with old brain Neymar, four others sent off as Marseille grab rare win at PSG Osimhen, Napoli bow to COVID-19 Victor Osimhen “is precisely the type of footballer that Napoli needs”, according to Dries Mertens, who has backed the club to bring in the Lille striker this summer.Few could have predicted the impact that Osimhen would have in Ligue 1 when he arrived at Lille from Charleroi for €12 million (£11m/$13m) in August 2019. The 21-year-old was targeted after the departure of club talisman Nicolas Pepe, who completed a £72 million ($90m) move to Arsenal after an outstanding season at Stade Pierre Mauroy.Osimhen has filled Pepe’s boots admirably, scoring 18 goals in his first 38 appearances in all competitions to help Lille finish fourth in Ligue 1, while also competing in the Champions League.The Nigerian frontman’s performances have not gone unnoticed among Europe’s elite clubs, with the likes of Juventus, Napoli, Liverpool and Tottenham among those taking an interest in his services in recent months.Napoli is reportedly leading the race for Osimhen’s signature, with the Lille star’s agent confirming he has already been in contact with the Italian giants over a potential move.Mertens would welcome the talented forward’s arrival at Stadio San Paolo, having been made aware of his unique abilities while he was still on the books of Charleroi. “My friends from Charleroi told me how well he played before going to France,” the Napoli talisman told Il Mattino.“I don’t know if he will come, but in any case, he is precisely the type of footballer that Napoli needs.”Mertens went on to express his hope that Jose Callejon remains at Napoli beyond the end of the season, with the midfielder’s current contract set to expire this summer.The 33-year-old added on his teammate’s future: “I tried to convince him to stay, and I’m still trying, I’m not giving up. Losing a friend like him would be sorry but also giving up a teammate and an extraordinary professional like Jose is not easy. I don’t know what will happen. There’s still time.”Napoli have been in good form since the resumption of the Italian season in early June, winning two of their three Serie A fixtures after beating Juventus in the Coppa Italia final. Tags: Dries MertensLigue 1NapoliVictor Osimhenlast_img read more

Big Sam ‘Very Proud’ to Be England Boss

first_imgSam Allardyce said monday that he was “very proud” to be named the new England manager, but refused to confirm that star striker Wayne Rooney would remain as captain.The 61-year-old succeeds Roy Hodgson, who quit after England humiliatingly lost to minnows Iceland in the last 16 of Euro 2016, triggering another bout of soul-searching in English football.The fate of Rooney – both as a starter in the team and as skipper – is among the weighty issues Allardyce will need to confront.“It is far too early to make any predictions and I will not make any decisions until I meet the players and coaching staff,” said Allardyce, who revealed that Sammy Lee, an assistant to him at Bolton and who has previous England experience under Sven-Goran Eriksson, would be part of his backroom staff. “It is my first day in and getting my feet under the table and meeting everyone.”Allardyce, who looked relaxed to the extent he dispensed with the formal attire of a tie, said his strength was his well-earned reputation as a man capable of going in and motivating the players to believe in themselves.“It is 10 years since I was last interviewed and to be here is a huge thrill for me,” said Allardyce, who lost out to Steve McClaren after Eriksson stepped down following the 2006 World Cup.“I fit the chair, I hope I do and I have the experience to pass on and to challenge the team and myself.“Man-management is my biggest asset – one, to help the players enjoy themselves, and two, to make them better than they already are.“I have a reputation for turning a club around very quickly but I consider myself to be much more than that.“I can turn things around and I start doing that by getting among the staff and the team and setting out on a journey.“To be a successful journey, though, it has to be everybody pulling together.”Share this:FacebookRedditTwitterPrintPinterestEmailWhatsAppSkypeLinkedInTumblrPocketTelegramlast_img read more

Bromley, Smith prepare for 2014 NFL Scouting Combine

first_imgJay Bromley needed to clear his head Tuesday night. With the NFL Scouting Combine just four days away, the former Syracuse defensive tackle was preparing to put a lifetime worth of work on the line.So he went to see “About Last Night” in an empty movie theatre by himself. It was the second time he had seen it, but he knew the film’s humor would help calm his nerves.“It’s something that I like to do to get away and clear my mind and just get myself relaxed a little bit,” Bromley said. “I play football and it’s just all a part of the process. Just some stress relief.”On Saturday, Bromley and his former SU teammate Jerome Smith, who have each been training separately in Florida, will travel to Indianapolis for the Combine. Bromley is a senior defensive tackle who led Syracuse in tackles for loss (14.5) and sacks (10). Smith is a junior running back who finished with a team-leading 12 touchdowns — a nine-touchdown improvement from the year before — and 914 rushing yards.The event is a grueling three-day stretch where NFL scouts and analysts evaluate the talent, potential and personalities of the athletes before the NFL Draft in April.AdvertisementThis is placeholder text“For a guy like me, this is my dream since I was a little kid,” Smith said. “It’s a long time coming. I’m just ready to get there and embrace all of it and take it all in. I’m ready to show people what I can do.”One thing Smith can do well is run.The 6-foot, 226-pound back said he’s anxious to showcase his new 40-yard dash time. His speed has been a huge part of his training regimen, and while he thinks evaluators are looking for a 4.6 out of him, he expects better.“That’s one of the main areas teams want to see what I can do,” Smith said. “I worked on it a lot, and I think people will be surprised with what I can do.”Like Smith, Bromley has also worked on his speed heading into the combine. For the 6-foot-4, 285-pound defensive tackle, though, the skill set to make him a better runner is slightly different.Anthony Hobgood, the trainer at EXOS — formerly known as Athletes’ Performance — that’s been working with Bromley on his speed, said he needs horsepower and efficiency.In other words, power and technique are the two things Bromley has improved on since starting his training on Jan. 2.“I’ve seen Jason improve his technique, his form, his efficiency,” Hobgood said. “He’s improved greatly. His horsepower has improved. He’s got stronger and more powerful.”Both players said they’re nervous heading into the event, but neither is worried about exposing weaknesses. Smith said he’s spoken with other players who are competing, and his goal is to focus only on himself.The novelty, though, still isn’t lost on him. He knows he’ll be competing against the best of the best this weekend.“I think it’s an opportunity for players from every conference and all different types of walks of life to get a chance to come into one place and show what you’ve been practicing and working really, really hard for,” Smith said.Smith is projected to go in the seventh round or undrafted by CBS sports — and is ranked as the 21st best running back and 276th best overall prospect.CBS has Bromley going in the sixth or seventh round and as the 21st best defensive tackle, and 226th prospect overall.Neither player is lighting up the draft boards right now, but both plan to change that this week.Said Bromley: “Hopefully I can make at least one person like me enough to take me as early as possible. I don’t really put no projections on it.“I’m just going to try and make whatever team picks me the luckiest team in the league.” Comments Facebook Twitter Google+ Published on February 20, 2014 at 2:55 am Contact Sam: | @SamBlum3last_img read more